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Africa’s two most successful women’s football nations both lost their WAFCON 2026 openers to East African underdogs — now both face must-win football to survive the group stage.
The Shock of Matchday One
Going into the 2026 Women’s Africa Cup of Nations (WAFCON) in Morocco, the script looked familiar: Nigeria, ranked number one in Africa and defending champions with a record ten titles, and South Africa, ranked third and the 2022 champions, were expected to cruise through the group stage. Only second-ranked Morocco, the hosts, followed the form book on the opening matchday, thrashing Kenya 4-0. Nigeria and South Africa did not.
Instead, both were beaten by unfancied East African neighbours — Malawi and Tanzania — in results that rank among the biggest upsets in the tournament’s history. The damage now leaves both giants needing to win their remaining two group games, and likely by healthy margins, to guarantee safe passage into the quarter-finals with something to spare.
Match One: Malawi 3-2 Nigeria
Debutants Malawi, nicknamed the Scorchers and playing their first-ever match at the WAFCON finals, stunned ten-time champions Nigeria 3-2 in Rabat. The first half was goalless, with Nigeria dominating possession but unable to turn control into clear chances. Malawi captain Temwa Chawinga broke the deadlock in the 73rd minute, and her sister Tabitha Chawinga doubled the lead six minutes later after further defensive lapses from the Super Falcons’ backline.
Nigeria captain Rasheedat Ajibade pulled a goal back from the penalty spot in the second minute of stoppage time, but Temwa Chawinga restored Malawi’s two-goal cushion almost immediately. Substitute Uchenna Kanu’s added-time header made it 3-2, but there was no time left for a Nigerian equaliser. The result marked a historic first competitive win for Malawi over the continent’s most decorated women’s team.
The defeat was compounded by events earlier the same day, when Zambia thrashed Egypt 6-0 — Barbra Banda scoring four — to leap to the top of Group C on goal difference, pushing Nigeria down to third.
Match Two: South Africa 1-2 Tanzania
A day earlier in Casablanca, defending champions South Africa had suffered a near-identical fate. Banyana Banyana dominated large spells of their Group B opener against Tanzania, hitting the crossbar and forcing several saves, but were made to pay for their profligacy. Tanzania’s Diana Msewa struck against the run of play in the 37th minute, before Bambanani Mbane equalised for South Africa right on the stroke of half-time.
The second half followed the same pattern — South Africa pressing, Tanzania soaking up pressure and threatening on the counter. It was substitute Hasnath Ubamba who settled it, driving into the box and beating goalkeeper Andile Dlamini with a low finish in the 86th/87th minute to secure a famous 2-1 win for the Twiga Stars, only the third time Tanzania has featured at the WAFCON finals.
Current Group Standings
Group B — South Africa’s Group
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
| 1 | Côte d’Ivoire | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 3 |
| 2 | Tanzania | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 3 | South Africa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 4 | Burkina Faso | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 0 |
South Africa sit third after one round, level on zero points with bottom side Burkina Faso but ahead only on goal difference. Côte d’Ivoire and Tanzania currently occupy the automatic qualifying spots.
Group C — Nigeria’s Group
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
| 1 | Zambia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | +6 | 3 |
| 2 | Malawi | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 3 |
| 3 | Nigeria | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
| 4 | Egypt | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 0 |
Nigeria are third, above only Egypt, who shipped six goals to Zambia. Zambia’s dominant win gives them a big goal-difference cushion, while Malawi’s win over Nigeria puts the debutants second on goals scored.
What’s Next for South Africa and Nigeria
South Africa
- Matchday 2: South Africa vs Côte d’Ivoire — Friday, 31 July, 22:00 CET, Moulay Rachid Stadium, Casablanca
- Matchday 3: Burkina Faso vs South Africa — Tuesday, 4 August, 22:00 CET, Larbi Zaouli Stadium, Casablanca
Côte d’Ivoire were the other big movers on matchday one, beating Burkina Faso 4-2, and now stand as favourites to top the group. A loss to the Ivorians would leave South Africa needing to beat already-eliminated-in-form Burkina Faso by a wide margin while hoping other results fall their way — in effect, a must-not-lose fixture. Victory, by contrast, would set up a straightforward finale against a Burkina Faso side that has also lost its opener.
Nigeria
- Matchday 2: Nigeria vs Zambia — Saturday, 1 August, 22:00 CET, Al Madina Stadium, Rabat
- Matchday 3: Nigeria vs Egypt — Wednesday, 5 August, 22:00 CET, Olympic Stadium, Rabat
Nigeria’s task looks even steeper on paper: Zambia, inspired by Barbra Banda and Racheal Kundananji, arrive full of confidence after their 6-0 demolition of Egypt and now hold a commanding goal-difference advantage. A defeat for Nigeria would leave their group-stage survival hanging on the final round against Egypt, and possibly on goal difference. A win, however, would revive the Super Falcons’ campaign and set up a straightforward finale against an Egypt side already reeling from a heavy opening loss.
Who Is More Likely to Qualify First?
On the current picture, South Africa appear to have the marginally easier run-in. Their final two opponents — Côte d’Ivoire and Burkina Faso — are strong but not in the imperious early form Nigeria’s remaining opponents have shown. Burkina Faso have already conceded four and look the weakest side in Group B, giving Banyana Banyana a plausible route to six points from their last two games.
Nigeria’s path looks tougher on paper because Zambia, their next opponents, have hit the ground running with the tournament’s biggest win so far and a plus-six goal difference. If Nigeria beat Zambia, they would likely leapfrog straight into second place and go into the final round in control; lose or draw, and it could come down to needing a big win over Egypt while also relying on the Zambia-Malawi result. Nigeria’s greater strength in depth and pedigree as ten-time champions still make them favourites to recover, but of the two, South Africa currently look slightly more likely to be first to confirm quarter-final qualification, given the relative weakness of their remaining opponents compared to Nigeria’s daunting clash with an in-form Zambia.
Both scenarios remain fluid — a single result on matchday two could flip the picture in either group, especially with goal difference likely to matter given the compressed three-match schedule.
What the Coaches Said
Desiree Ellis — South Africa Head Coach
“Goals win games. We knew what Tanzania was going to do, but the two goals we conceded were poor. They had two chances, and they took them to win the game. I said before the match that it was going to be a very difficult match, but we also made life difficult for ourselves.” — Dr Desiree Ellis, after the 2-1 loss to Tanzania
Ellis’s comments pointed to a familiar theme for South Africa: territorial and possession dominance undone by defensive errors and profligacy in front of goal. Her side must now regroup quickly, with the tougher of their two remaining fixtures — Côte d’Ivoire — coming first.
Justin Madugu — Nigeria Head Coach
Before the Malawi game, Madugu had been careful not to talk down the debutants, warning his squad against complacency.
“They are debutants in the WAFCON, but they are a very good side. We’re not taking any team for granted because you need to respect everybody that has qualified for this competition. Everybody is coming here with a purpose, with a mission, so you don’t undermine or underestimate what anybody can do.” — Justin Madugu, pre-match press conference
“We are here for the defence of the WAFCON trophy, and the team is fully ready and set to go. We have a focus, we have a target, and we know what we really want to achieve. We are here to ensure that we qualify for the World Cup, as well as retain the trophy we won last year.” — Justin Madugu, pre-match press conference
Those words now read as prophetic given how competitive Malawi proved. Nigeria’s players echoed the same win-at-all-costs mentality beforehand, with captain Rasheedat Ajibade saying only victory, not performance, would count as a good outcome — a target that now falls firmly on the Zambia fixture.
“A good performance from the Super Falcons will be to win. Three points, and that’s all we think is a good performance for us because that’s all that matters in this tournament.” — Rasheedat Ajibade, Nigeria captain, pre-match
The Bottom Line
Two of Africa’s most storied women’s national teams now find themselves with no margin for error. South Africa and Nigeria both need results — and likely comfortable ones — in their remaining two group matches to book quarter-final places and stay on course for the automatic 2027 FIFA Women’s World Cup qualification reserved for WAFCON’s four semi-finalists. Malawi and Tanzania, meanwhile, have already made history and sit in strong positions to reach the knockout rounds on their respective tournament debuts and near-debuts.
Matchday two, on Friday 31 July and Saturday 1 August, could go a long way to deciding which of the two former champions recovers first — and which faces a nervy, win-or-bust finale in the final round of group games.
Sources: CAF Online, SuperSport, Kick Off, News24, TheSouthAfrican, Cape Town Etc, Punch Nigeria, Daily Post Nigeria, Premium Times, TheCable, Legit.ng, Leadership Nigeria, Pulse Ghana, Daily Sports, AfricaSoccer.com, beIN Sports, Flashscore.